一、Policy-driven: from subsidy pilot to market liberalization
From 2015 to 2020, Southeast Asian countries launched large-scale development of photovoltaic power through fixed electricity price subsidies (FiT) and bidding plans. For example, Vietnam launched the FiT mechanism in 2017 to promote the rapid construction of ground power stations, but the suspension in 2021 led to market fluctuations. Thailand and Malaysia attracted investment through regular bidding (such as the LSS plan) and net metering policy (NEM).
After 2020, the policy shifted to a market-oriented mechanism. Thailand piloted a direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) to allow large companies to directly purchase green electricity; Vietnam restarted FiT in 2023 and simplified the approval process for rooftop photovoltaics, and further relaxed capacity restrictions in 2024. The Philippines' Green Energy Auction Program (GEA) promoted the installed capacity to jump from MW in 2023 to 2.4GW in 2024.
二、Market expansion: a leap from MW to GW
In 2015, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power in Southeast Asia was less than 5GW, and it exceeded 30GW in 2023. The performance of each country is significantly differentiated:
- Vietnam: With the early FiT policy, the installed capacity reached 16GW in 2020, but due to policy interruptions and adjustments, demand is expected to rebound to 1.4-2.4GW in 2025.
- Philippines: Demand surged fivefold to 2.4GW in 2024, becoming one of the fastest growing markets in Southeast Asia.
- Thailand: The installed capacity is expected to reach 3.7GW in 2025, with large-scale project bidding and industrial user DPPA becoming the core driving force.
By 2025, the annual demand for photovoltaics in Southeast Asia is expected to reach 9.7-12.9GW, an increase of more than 20 times compared with 2015.
三、The rise of the supply chain: from component imports to localized manufacturing
In the early days, Southeast Asia relied on Chinese component imports, but local manufacturing capabilities increased rapidly after 2018. Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand have become global component and battery production centers, with production capacity expected to reach 150GW in 2030, accounting for 10% of the world.
Investment by Chinese companies has accelerated this process. For example, Longi, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar have set up factories in Vietnam and Malaysia; battery companies such as CATL and Sunwoda will set up production bases in Thailand and Indonesia in 2024-2025 to avoid European and American tariffs and meet regional demand.
四、Challenges and opportunities: grid absorption and cross-border cooperation
Challenges:
- The insufficient absorption capacity of the power grids in the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries has led to an increase in the rate of abandoned light.
- Policy repetitions (such as Indonesia's cancellation of rooftop net metering in 2024) suppress short-term demand.
Opportunities:
- Cross-border power interconnection plans (such as LTMS-PIP) promote green power transactions, and Singapore plans to import 4GW of green power in 2035.
- The decline in the cost of energy storage technology will help the popularization of the "photovoltaic + energy storage" model. The energy storage demand in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 40% in 2025.
五、 Future Outlook: It may become a global green power hub in 2030
By 2028, Southeast Asia's photovoltaic demand will increase by 70% compared with 2024, and the regional installed capacity is expected to exceed 50GW. With the continuous optimization of policies and the deepening of localized manufacturing, Southeast Asia may become the core node of the global renewable energy supply chain and realize the cross-border transmission of green electricity with the help of the ASEAN integration plan.
Conclusion
Southeast Asia's ten-year photovoltaic journey is a microcosm of policy innovation, market expansion and supply chain upgrade. From follower to leader, this region is writing a new chapter for the global energy transformation.
Sources: Integrated data from TrendForce, InfoLink Consulting, and government reports .
